GM. Today’s headlines:
- Bitcoin approaches $70,000 for the first time since July.
- SEC approves options trading on BTC ETFs.
- Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, now believes Bitcoin is on the path to becoming a standalone asset class.
$BTC has continued its upward move over the past week with price rallying nearly +10% since breaking out above its 200DMA and towards the major $70,000 level. October is looking to again be one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, with nine out of the last ten years seeing positive monthly returns for the start of Q4.
Figure 1: Bitcoin has rallied nearly 10% in the past week towards $70,000.
Bitcoin has now broken out of its long-term downward resistance and continues to make higher highs and higher lows, providing early indications that our multi-month downtrend may soon be behind us. $70,000 will be a major resistance level, with our current all-time high of ~$74,000, the next key price investors will be watching.
Figure 2: Bitcoin has broken its downtrend and is rallying towards major resistance.
News You Need to Know
- Italy to raise capital gains tax on Bitcoin to 42% from 26%.
- SEC approves options trading on BTC ETFs.
- Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, now believes Bitcoin is on the path to becoming a standalone asset class.
The Big Story
SEC approves options trading on BTC ETFs.
The SEC has approved options trading for spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) on two major U.S. exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe). This allows investors to trade options tied to Bitcoin ETFs, such as the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, ARK21Shares Bitcoin ETF, and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.
These derivatives provide investors a flexible way to hedge positions or speculate on Bitcoin’s price movements without directly holding BTC itself.
This approval marks a significant step in Bitcoin's integration into traditional financial markets. With more institutional inflows and increased market participation, the approval is expected to help solidify Bitcoin’s position as a key asset of traditional investors' portfolios, especially for institutional investors who may have been cautious about Bitcoin’s volatility and lack of regulation.
Figure 3: BTC ETF inflows have noticeably increased in the past week.
Institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs has been rapidly increasing, with over $2.1 billion in net inflows reported in the past five trading days alone. This reflects a heightened demand for Bitcoin-related financial products.
We’ve also witnessed a sharp increase in open interest for Bitcoin perpetual futures contracts, signaling expanding participation in the derivatives markets.
Figure 4: Bitcoin Open Interest.
In the past few weeks, we’ve seen the open value of $BTC perpetual futures increase by around $6b. Alongside the growing institutional interest and launch of more sophisticated derivative products, these capital inflows will likely continue to have a positive impact on the price and perception of Bitcoin.
Key Chart
Each week, our BM Pro Analysts hand-pick a must-see chart for you. This week:
Figure 5: Hash Ribbons Indicator.
What it is:
- The Hash Ribbons indicator is a Bitcoin market signal designed to identify periods of miner distress, known as miner capitulation.
- During these times, Bitcoin miners may turn off their mining rigs due to unsustainable costs or low profitability. The indicator uses moving averages of Bitcoin's hash rate (the computational power miners contribute to the network) to highlight these events.
- The idea is that when miners are capitulating, Bitcoin prices may be at or near major lows, potentially signaling a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
Why it matters for Bitcoin investors:
- Miner capitulation often occurs after sharp declines in Bitcoin’s price, making it a crucial signal for detecting potential market bottoms. Historically, this indicator has helped investors identify periods of accumulation where buying Bitcoin at depressed prices may offer significant upside in the future.
- These periods of capitulation ending have often aligned with Bitcoin’s price starting to recover.
What it is showing right now:
- The Hash Ribbons have just bullishly crossed, indicating that miner capitulation has likely ended and signaling a potential Bitcoin buying opportunity. Specifically, this occurs when the 30-day moving average (30DMA) of the hash rate crosses back above the 60-day moving average (60DMA).
- Miners are returning to the network, and the worst of the recent price declines could be over.
This chart is available to view for free on Bitcoin Magazine Pro here. Subscribers can set alerts for this chat and many others. Subscribe here.
The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team.