After a sharp multi-week selloff that took Bitcoin from above $100,000 to under $80,000, the recent bounce has traders wondering if this is just a bear market rally or the beginning of the next macro leg higher.
Local Bottom or Just a Pause?
Bitcoin’s latest correction was deep enough to rattle confidence, but shallow enough to maintain macro trend structure. Price seems to have set a local bottom between $76K–$77K, and several reliable metrics are beginning to solidify the local lows and point towards further upside.
The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) is one of the most reliable sentiment gauges across Bitcoin cycles. As price fell, NUPL dropped into “Anxiety” territory, but following the rebound, NUPL has now reclaimed the “Belief” zone, a critical sentiment transition historically seen at macro higher lows.
Figure 1: The NUPL indicates a bullish rebound in sentiment.
The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple weighs BTC spending by both coin age and transaction size, and compares the data to a previous yearly average, giving insight into long term holder behavior. Current readings have reset to low levels, suggesting that large, aged coins are not being moved. This is a clear signal of conviction from smart money. Similar dynamics preceded major price rallies in both the 2016/17 and 2020/21 bull cycles.
Figure 2: The largest and most experienced bitcoin holders have stopped selling.
Long-Term Holders Hoarding
We’re also now seeing the Long Term Holder Supply beginning to climb. After profit-taking above $100K, long-term participants are now re-accumulating at lower levels. Historically, these phases of accumulation have set the foundation for supply squeezes and subsequent parabolic price action.
Figure 3: Long Term Holder BTC supply is rapidly increasing.
Hash Ribbons Bullish Cross
The Hash Ribbons Indicator has just completed a bullish crossover, where the short-term hash rate trend moves above the longer-term average. This signal has historically aligned with bottoms and trend reversals. Given that miner behavior tends to reflect profitability expectations, this cross suggests miners are now confident in higher prices ahead.
Figure 4: Bitcoin miners are becoming bullish once again.
Stock Tied
Despite bullish on-chain data, Bitcoin remains closely tied to macro liquidity trends and equity markets, particularly the S&P 500. As long as that correlation holds, BTC will be partially at the mercy of global monetary policy, risk sentiment, and liquidity flows. While rate cut expectations have helped risk assets bounce, any sharp reversal could cause renewed choppiness for Bitcoin.
Figure 5: $BTC remains highly correlated to US Equities.
Conclusion
From a data-driven perspective, Bitcoin looks increasingly well-positioned for a sustained continuation of its bull cycle. Metrics like NUPL, VDD, and Hash Ribbons all point toward structural strength, not weakness, especially as long term holders are now taking advantage of the recent dip and are aggressively accumulating.
However, macro conditions still warrant caution. Bull markets take time to build, and while the bottom may be in, the next leg higher will likely unfold in steps, not vertical candles.
For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here:
Bitcoin On-Chain & Data Analysis - Is The Bull Market Back?
Matt Crosby
Lead Analyst - Bitcoin Magazine Pro