Weekly Alpha
Today’s headlines:
- $BTC continues to range just below $100k.
- CalSTRS pension fund reports holding $83 million in MSTR shares.
- Abu Dhabi Discloses $437M Stake in BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF.
- Goldman Sachs increases Bitcoin exposure to more than $2B.
Bitcoin’s price is currently in a range that has been forming since December last year.
Here, we update the range, highlighting the key levels $BTC needs to break through to climb higher. The key resistance levels are $100,000 and $106,000.
Daily closes above those levels will rekindle retail interest and excitement, which have waned somewhat in recent weeks.
Figure 1: $BTC has been lackluster during February so far.
Over the past 3 months, Bitcoin is up just 4.12%.
Figure 2: Past 3 months' price action.
Once the BTC price breaks out above $100,000, retail interest will return, likely sending metrics like active addresses holding at least $1,000 worth of Bitcoin to new highs.
Currently, there are around 12 million addresses that each hold +$1,000 of bitcoin.
Figure 3: Active addresses holding at least $1,000
As price trends higher, this will draw more attention to the space, which in turn will drive adoption. Addresses holding at least $1,000 is a good proxy metric to track adoption over time.
The Big Story
US Property Priced in BTC at Lows
The latest data released on Bitcoin Magazine Pro shows how the value of house prices in the U.S. has continued to plummet over time relative to Bitcoin.
With currency devaluation so rampant over the past 15 years, it is no surprise that many assets, such as Property and Bitcoin, have increased in value. Why? Investors look to protect their dollars by moving from cash to assets with a better chance of holding their value as governments debase their currencies.
The first chart below shows that general increase over time, with $BTC in black and US Median House Sales price in blue.
However, while both have increased over time, the scale for each asset is VERY different.
Figure 4: Bitcoin and US Housing Median Sales Price.
This difference in scale can be brought to life when looking at median US House Prices shown not in US dollars…but in Bitcoin terms.
Figure 5: US Median House Prices priced in Bitcoin.
This results in a ‘down-only’ line (blue line) highlighting property depreciation relative to Bitcoin over time.
To visualize the impact of this for an investor, we can use the following infographic, which shows how many bitcoins would be needed to purchase a house in the US based on the median house price.
Figure 6: Number of bitcoin needed to purchase a US property.
In 2017, an investor would have needed 24 bitcoins to purchase a US property with a median house price of $337,900.
That dropped down to 9 bitcoin in 2021.
Today, an investor would need just 4 bitcoin to purchase a US property with a median house price of $419,200.
While property value has increased in US dollar terms, it has crashed relative to bitcoin.
Something worth remembering next time you here that Bitcoin is not a good investment.
These charts can be found in the Portfolio Tools section of the platform here.
The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team.