GM. Today’s headlines:
- Bitcoin bounces to $55,000 after last week's price slump.
- Fear remains in the market due to sustained sluggish prices.
- Venezuelan opposition leader proposes Bitcoin as a National Reserve.
Bitcoin has bounced over the weekend after last week's lows of $52,000.
However, over the past month, the price of Bitcoin is down 9.88%.
Figure 1: Bitcoin past month price performance.
Over the past 3 months, Bitcoin's price has gone down by 18.5%. It has been a volatile period with price bouncing between current levels and $68,000.
Figure 2: Bitcoin's past 3-month performance.
News You Need to Know
- Bitcoin bounces to $55,000 after last week's slump.
- Fear moves through the market due to sustained sluggish prices.
- Venezuelan opposition leader proposes Bitcoin as National Reserve.
- Tether addresses $102M agriculture investment.
- Japanese power giant TEPCO explores ‘green’ Bitcoin mining.
The Big Story
Fear Moves Through the Market
Traders remain fearful as Bitcoin’s price drops into the low $50k’s. This choppy price action contributing to the fear has continued since the ETF euphoria in March earlier this year.
Right now, the Fear & Greed Index is showing a score of 29, well into the Fear zone, reflecting the poor sentiment in the market.
Figure 3: Fear & Greed Index.
We note that fear often emerges around major price lows as traders and investors panic, seeing the dollar value of their investments drop. Historically, Bitcoin often bounces hard after such periods.
Concerns around weak global markets are being cited as reasons for the weak Bitcoin price action. There are also concerns about recent negative Bitcoin ETF flows, which have been poor over the past 10 days.
Figure 4: Bitcoin ETF Flows.
Despite the doom and gloom sentiment in the market, Bitcoin’s price remains above its 1-year moving average. The 1-year moving average is a key line in the sand for Bitcoin bull markets throughout it’s history. With the exception of the black swan event of Covid in March 2020, where price briefly dropped below the 1-year moving average, $BTC has always remained above its 1-year moving average in bull markets.
Right now, $BTC price remains above that key level…just.
Figure 4: Bitcoin’s 1-year moving average.
As long as Bitcoin can remain above that key level the bull run will likely continue. Sustained periods below it may question the bull market thesis for many.
Key Chart
Each week, our BM Pro Analysts hand-pick a must-see chart for you. This week:
Profitable Days
Figure 6: Bitcoin Profitable Days.
What it is
- This chart shows the number of days where holding Bitcoin has been profitable relative to today’s price.
- It highlights the aggressive growth of Bitcoin's adoption curve over time, reflected in its price. Because supply is limited, as demand grows, the price moves up.
Why this matters
- This chart acts as a helpful reminder to Bitcoin investors to zoom out.
- Particularly during periods when Bitcoin’s price action is sluggish and has retraced from recent highs…as we are seeing right now.
- It shows how the patient investor can benefit from Bitcoin’s adoption process over time.
What's happening now
- Currently, 94.1% of Bitcoin days are profitable relative to today’s price.
- That is 4,831 days out of a total of 5,135.
- The red lines on the chart show the days when it would not have been profitable to have bought bitcoin relative to today’s price. The green lines show when it would have been profitable.
You can track this metric here.
The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team.