Bitcoin Halving Analysis 2024-2025 & Opportunities and Risks

Dec. 29, 2024

Author: Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team

Bitcoin is known for its wild price swings, which can be exciting but also stressful. One moment you could be sitting on huge gains; the next, the market crashes, wiping out a chunk of your profits. Thankfully, Bitcoin halving events provide some clarity amidst the chaos, as they are predictable occurrences that significantly impact the price of Bitcoin. Understanding what is Bitcoin halving is crucial for navigating these market changes. This article will offer valuable Bitcoin halving analysis to help you manage the risks and maximize your returns in the 2024-2025 post-halving period.

Bitcoin Magazine Pro’s Bitcoin analysis will help you make sense of the data surrounding the upcoming halving event and what the price of Bitcoin means. Following our research, you’ll understand how the Bitcoin halving event will impact the market, identify potential investment opportunities, and manage risks for maximum returns in 2024-2025.

Bitcoin Holds Steady near $95,000, Eyes $200,000 Target by Mid-2025

BTC Chart - Bitcoin Halving Analysis

Bitcoin has traded in a tight range near $95,000 since December 25, 2025. The price stability comes after the digital asset peaked at more than $108,000 earlier this month. Market analysts expect Bitcoin to rally again in 2025. 

What is Causing Bitcoin's Price Stability? 

Several factors contribute to Bitcoin's stability near the $95,000 price level, including market demand, adoption rates, and macroeconomic influences. For example, the upcoming Bitcoin halving in April 2024 has investors excited. Historically, Bitcoin price rallies have occurred after these events, which have reduced the supply of new Bitcoin.

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which debuted this January, logged $475 million in inflows after four consecutive days of withdrawals. “The ETF inflows highlight robust institutional support, particularly as macroeconomic conditions improve and inflation appears to be easing,” BRN's lead analyst Valentin Fournier told The Block. Slowing inflation and an increasingly stable economy make Bitcoin more attractive. 

Why are Experts Predicting Bitcoin Will Reach $200,000 by Mid-2025?

By mid-2025, Bitcoin could reach $200,000, according to analysts at Bitfinex. "Our minimum price target for Bitcoin remains at $140,000 - $200,000 around mid-2025,” Bitfinex analysts said.

“The current bull market reflects strong institutional demand, led by ETFs and spot accumulation. Historical data suggests we are mid-cycle, following the April 2024 halving, with the market likely to peak around [the third and fourth quarter of] 2025, approximately 450 days post-halving. Historically, post-halving years have seen the strongest rallies.”

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Bitcoin Halving Analysis Post Christmas in Halving Years

Bitcoin Analysis - Bitcoin Halving Analysis

After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin saw modest consolidation before rallying over 9,000% in early 2013. The 2016 halving was followed by a post-Christmas breakout of over 2,100%, eventually fueling the 2017 bull market.

The same trend repeated after the 2020 halving, as Bitcoin surged by over 100% to its all-time high shortly after Christmas 2020. The pattern could be tied to seasonal market dynamics. 

Year-End Portfolio Adjustments and Their Market Impact

Year-end institutional balance sheet closures and renewed capital flows in January often drive speculative investments. For the uninformed, institutional investors often adjust their portfolios at the end of the calendar year to lock in profits, manage tax liabilities, and align with investment mandates. These activities can increase market liquidity and volatility.

Retail interest increases after the holiday season, adding to the momentum. Retail investors increase their market participation after the holiday season, possibly due to year-end bonuses, holiday savings, or a renewed focus on financial goals for the new year. 

Bitcoin Halving Events: Short-Term Price Predictions for 2024 and Beyond

The period between Christmas and New Year’s, often called the “Santa Claus Rally,” has historically been associated with stock market gains. This phenomenon is attributed to increased investor optimism, investment in holiday bonuses, and settlement of tax-related transactions. 

As traditional markets rally seasonally during Q4 and early Q1, Bitcoin’s positioning as a non-correlated or inflation-hedge asset gains appeal. Halving cycles amplify this appeal, particularly for institutional investors looking to diversify holdings. 

Bitcoin Price Outlook: Key Levels and Fibonacci Targets

Bitcoin is testing the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level near $101,000 as resistance, with technical indicators pointing to a potential pullback. A decline could see Bitcoin retesting support at $69,000, aligning with its ascending trendline and the neckline of the previously formed inverse head-and-shoulders (IH&S) pattern. The $69,000 level is crucial as it served as the breakout point for the IH&S pattern earlier in 2024. 

A successful defense of this level could set the stage for a strong rebound, targeting the next Fibonacci level at 2.618, near $150,000. Broadly, the IH&S pattern projects a long-term price target of over $250,000, suggesting significant upside potential if Bitcoin maintains its bullish structure. However, immediate market moves depend on the $101,000 resistance and whether buyers step in to defend $69,000 if a pullback occurs.

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How to Invest in Bitcoin for Maximum Returns in 2025

Person Analyzing Bitcoin - Bitcoin Halving Analysis

Whether the focus is on stocks or Bitcoin, any investor understands the concept of buying low and selling high. This strategy of boosting portfolio returns makes sense.

However, it's almost impossible to repeat this process with consistent accuracy. In other words, trying to time the market to avoid the down days and only capture the best days wastes time and energy. Excessive trading like this can cause more harm than good to your portfolio. Not only that, but taxes and transaction costs will eat away at any gains. 

The Opportunity Cost of Staying on the Sidelines in Bitcoin's Bull Run

Bitcoin has had many declines of more than 50%. Imagine buying at the lows in March 2020 or November 2022. The returns since those two points in time have been unbelievable.

BTC has ripped higher this year. The natural thinking among investors on the sidelines is that Bitcoin is due for a correction shortly. You can understand that perspective, especially given the digital asset's previous price cycles. While you wait on the sidelines, Bitcoin's price will continue marching higher. Holding cash when this happens results in a huge opportunity cost. 

Forget Timing. Think Long-Term. 

Instead of timing the market, investors should instead prioritize time in the market. This shift in perspective reveals that having a long-term mindset is the best approach to Bitcoin.

But before you invest, it's critical to understand what makes it special. The fact that there will only ever be 21 million coins highlights its scarcity. In a world where governments constantly debase fiat currencies by running the printing presses, owning something with a fixed supply is alluring.

Bitcoin is also Decentralized and Global

Bitcoin is more divisible, easier to use in transactions, portable, and verifiable than gold, which is viewed as a popular store of value. It's not a stretch to believe that Bitcoin's market cap will not only reach the $17.8 trillion value of all above-ground gold but also exceed this figure in the future.

Adopting a dollar-cost averaging strategy is ideal after establishing that you're bullish on Bitcoin for the next five to 10 years. This eliminates the guesswork needed to time the market correctly. It ensures that investors take advantage of multiple price points when using cash to add Bitcoin to their portfolios. This approach turns the digital asset's volatility into an advantage you can exploit.

Once you've learned more about Bitcoin, built up conviction that it still has major upside, and decided that you want to own it in your portfolio, the next step is to start making small purchases regularly. It's also important to keep up with developments related to Bitcoin. Over time, this strategy should lead to a satisfactory result.

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