Bitcoin is a hot topic, and recent developments make it more exciting. Yet, as interest grows, so does the number of people entering the market. Similarly, Bitcoin’s volatility can create opportunities and risks for new traders. The more people learn to trade Bitcoin, the better they get at it. This increase in skill can help reduce the risks associated with Bitcoin trading and make it easier to identify profitable opportunities through bitcoin indicators. This guide will teach you how to trade Bitcoin effectively and consistently make profits without unnecessary complications or risks.
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What is Bitcoin Trading?
Bitcoin trading refers to buying and selling Bitcoin via an exchange platform. In short, Bitcoin can be traded in many ways. The first way is to buy and sell BTC. Another way is to employ derivative financial instruments, such as Contracts for Difference (CFDs). Trading via CFDs facilitates traders' trading in the direction of market movement over a very short-term period. It lets you bet on Bitcoin price changes without owning any underlying coins.
CFDs have become a popular way to trade in Bitcoin as they offer greater flexibility. With the optimum use of leverage, one can take short and long positions in Bitcoin. To start trading in Bitcoin, one must be well-equipped with adequate information and familiar with the subject. Knowing the associated risks and regulatory laws that might affect one’s jurisdiction and decisions is also critical.
Bitcoin Trading vs. Investing: What’s The Difference?
Before we dive deep into the subject, we want to understand Bitcoin trading and how it is different from investing in Bitcoin. When people invest in Bitcoin, they usually buy it for the long term. They believe that the price will ultimately rise, regardless of the ups and downs that may occur along the way.
People invest in Bitcoin because they believe in the technology, ideology, or developers behind the currency. Bitcoin investors tend to make HODL the currency for the long run (HODL is a popular term in the Bitcoin community born out of a typo of the word “hold” in an old 2013 post in the BitcoinTalk forum.
Why Bitcoin Trading is Gaining Popularity: Volatility, 24/7 Access, and Ease of Entry
Bitcoin traders buy and sell Bitcoin in the short term whenever they think a profit can be made. Unlike investors, traders view Bitcoin as an instrument for making profits. Sometimes, they don’t even bother to study the technology or the ideology behind the product they’re trading.
People can trade Bitcoin and still care about it, and many people out there invest and trade at the same time. There are a few reasons for the sudden rise in the popularity of Bitcoin trading.
Bitcoin is Very Volatile
You can profit if you anticipate the market correctly. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin trading is open 24/7. Most traditional markets, such as stocks and commodities, have an opening and closing time.
With Bitcoin, you can buy and sell whenever you please. Bitcoin’s somewhat unregulated landscape makes it relatively easy to start trading without long identity verification processes.
How Does Bitcoin Trading Work?
Bitcoin trading involves speculating on price movements. This can be done by taking a long position (buy) if an increase in price is anticipated or a short position (sell) if a decrease is expected.
Bitcoin trading can occur through exchanges, where actual Bitcoins are bought and sold, or through brokers offering Contracts for Difference (CFDs). CFDs allow traders to speculate on future market movements of the price of Bitcoin without owning the actual asset, which can help reduce overall risk.
How Bitcoin Exchange Platforms Operate: Orders, Verification, and Transactions
Bitcoin exchange platforms match buyers with sellers. Like a traditional stock exchange, traders can buy and sell bitcoin by inputting either a market or limit order. When a market order is selected, the trader authorizes the exchange to trade the coins for the best available price in the online marketplace. A limit order directs the exchange to trade coins for a price below the current ask or above the current bid, depending on whether they are buying or selling.
To transact in Bitcoin on a regulated exchange, a user must register with the exchange and undergo a series of verification processes to authenticate their identity. Once the authentication is successful, an account is opened for the user, who must then transfer funds into it before they can buy coins.
The Role of Decentralized Exchanges in Bitcoin Trading
Decentralized Bitcoin exchanges operate without a central authority, only providing a place for buyers and sellers to connect. These exchanges allow peer-to-peer trading of digital currencies without needing someone to facilitate the transactions.
Decentralized exchanges offer several benefits. Many users feel they better match the decentralized structures of most digital currencies; several decentralized exchanges also require less personal information from their members than centralized (registered and regulated) exchanges.
Benefits and Challenges of Decentralized Bitcoin Exchanges
If users transfer assets directly to other users, the need to transfer assets to the exchange is eliminated, thereby reducing the risk of theft from hacks and other fraud. Decentralized exchanges must maintain a fundamental level of user interest in the form of trading volume and liquidity.
Not all decentralized exchanges have achieved these important baseline qualities. Users of a decentralized exchange may have less recourse if they are the victims of fraud than those who use regulated ones.
How Fees Impact Bitcoin Trading
Deposits and withdrawals come at a price depending on the payment method used to transfer funds. Exchanges may charge higher fees based on the risk of chargebacks if they accept credit or debit cards. In addition to transaction and fund transfer fees, traders may have to pay currency conversion fees, depending on the currencies accepted by the Bitcoin exchange. If a user transfers Canadian dollars to an exchange that only deals in U.S. dollars, the bank or the exchange will convert the CAD to USD for a fee.
Transacting with an exchange that accepts your local currency is the best way to avoid the FX fee. Nearly all Bitcoin exchanges have transaction fees applied to each completed buy and sell order carried out within the exchange. The fee rate depends on the volume of Bitcoin transactions on the network. Foreign exchange spreads are important when transacting in Bitcoin and vary depending on the exchange's liquidity.
Understanding Bitcoin Wallets
Note that a Bitcoin exchange is different from a Bitcoin wallet. While the former offers a platform through which bitcoin buyers and sellers can transact with each other, the latter is simply a digital storage service for bitcoin holders to store their private keys securely. Most Bitcoin exchanges provide wallets for their users but may charge a fee for this service.
Who Are the Makers and Takers in Bitcoin Trading?
Similar to stock and commodity exchanges, online Bitcoin marketplaces usually designate Bitcoin participants as market makers or takers. A market maker is a trader who always tries to buy and sell at the best ask and bid, and a market taker tries to execute their trades immediately. Takers are more concerned with liquidity and quick trades.
Example of a Bitcoin Exchange
Imagine a Bitcoin exchange where three coin sellers are asking the following:
- BTC/USD 2,265.75
- BTC/USD 2,269.55
- BTC/USD 2,270.00
A trader initiates a market order to buy ten bitcoins and fill their order at the best ask price of $2,265.75. Only five bitcoins are available at the best ask, and ten coins are available for $2,269.55. The trader's order will be filled with five coins at $2,265.75 and the remaining five at $2,269.55.
A trader who thinks they can get Bitcoin for a better price could set a limit order for $2,260.10. If a seller matches their ask price with this order or sets a price below this figure, the order will be filled. The exchange does all of this, taking a percentage of each transaction for its business.
9 Trading Strategies
While all traders want the same thing, profit, they practice different methods to generate it. Let’s review some examples of popular trading types:
1. Day Trading
This method involves conducting multiple trades throughout the day and trying to profit from short-term price movements. Day traders spend a lot of time staring at computer screens and usually close all their positions by the end of each day.
2. Scalping
This day-trading strategy is becoming popular lately. Scalping attempts to make substantial profits on small price changes and is often likened to “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.” Scalping focuses on extremely short-term trading and is based on the idea that making small profits repeatedly limits risks and creates advantages for traders. Scalpers can make dozens or hundreds of trades in one day.
3. Swing trading
This type of trade tries to take advantage of the natural “swing” of the price cycles. Swing traders try to spot the beginning of a specific price movement and enter the trade then. They hold on until the movement dies out and take the profit. Swing traders try to see the big picture without constantly monitoring their computer screens. For example, swing traders can open a trading position and hold it open for weeks or even months until they reach their desired result.
4. Bitcoin Position Trading
This kind of trading is also known as trend trading which is a long-term approach. It entails buying and holding Bitcoin for a longer period of time. This strategy does not take into account the short-term price movement and focuses on the growth in the long term.
5. HODL
HODLing is a term popular in the Bitcoin community for holding Bitcoin for an extended period, regardless of market volatility, with the belief that its long-term value will increase. This strategy is based on the fundamental belief in Bitcoin’s future growth and potential as a store of value. HODLers often disregard short-term price fluctuations in favour of long-term gains.
6. Arbitrage
Arbitrage involves buying Bitcoin on one exchange at a lower price and selling it on another exchange at a higher price, profiting from the price difference. This strategy requires quick actions and knowledge of different exchanges' pricing and fee structures at any given moment. Arbitrage opportunities can be fleeting and are very time-sensitive.
7. Trend trading
Trend trading capitalises on the momentum of Bitcoin’s price movements. Trend traders identify the direction of the trend and open positions accordingly, either long or short. This strategy relies on the assumption that current trends will continue, allowing traders to ride the trend for a profit until it shows signs of reversal.
8. Breakout trading
Breakout trading involves entering the market at the beginning of a trend when the price breaks out of a defined support or resistance level, with further movement in that direction expected. Key levels on a chart are identified, and trades are placed when these levels are breached, aiming to catch the early part of a new trend.
9. Mean reversion
Mean reversion is a strategy based on the assumption that Bitcoin’s price will return to its average over time. This approach involves buying when prices are low and selling when prices are high, with the expectation that deviations from the mean are temporary. It relies on the statistical concept that prices will revert to their historical average.
What is Bitcoin CFD Trading?
Bitcoin CFD trading means taking a position in the digital currency, depending on your prediction of the future movement in BTC’s price. Bitcoin CFD trading allows a trader to speculate on the price of BTC and take a long or a short position, accordingly. If traders feel the price of Bitcoin will go up, they open a long position, whereas if they expect the price to decline in the future, they open a short position.
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How to Trade Bitcoin in 6 Easy Steps
1. Decide How to Trade Bitcoin: Buying Bitcoin or Speculating on Its Price Movements
Trading bitcoin falls into two categories:
- Buying and selling the underlying asset on an exchange
- Speculating on its price movements via contracts for difference (CFDs)
Bitcoin trading involves the buying and selling. But, you can also trade on bitcoin by speculating on its price movements using CFDs.
These are a type of derivative, meaning you’ll take a position on market movements without owning any underlying coins. Because CFDs are traded over-the-counter (OTC), you don’t need to buy and sell on a bitcoin exchange. CFDs are leveraged, which means you’ll use margin to open your position. This gives you full exposure to the larger position, for a smaller initial outlay. Leverage amplifies your profits and losses, so be sure to take steps to minimise this risk.
2. Build a Trading Plan
A trading plan is a comprehensive decision-making plan for your bitcoin trading activity. It helps you decide when and how much to trade and should indicate your motivation for trading, the time commitment you want to make:
- Your trading goals
- Your attitude to risk
- Your available capital for trading
- Personal risk management rules
The markets you want to trade, your strategies, and steps for record keeping.
3. Put Money into Your Account
Once you have signed up with an exchange, you need to fund your account through bank deposits, peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions, and other wire transfers.
4. Pick Bitcoin To Invest In
After putting money into your account, you can select the quantity of Bitcoin that you wish to buy to trade further.
5. Start the Process of Trading In Bitcoin
After buying a considerable amount of Bitcoin, now you can start trading in Bitcoin as per your chosen trading strategy. To start with you can also take help of Bitcoin trading bots which are available at most digital coin exchanges. This automated process helps to provide you with significant returns based on your trading objectives.
6. Store Your Bitcoins Safely in Digital Wallets
If you are an active Bitcoin trader, then you should store BTC on the exchange in order to access them. You can also purchase a specific Bitcoin wallet, if you are buying BTC and planning to hold them for little more than a short-term period. Broadly, there are two kinds of digital wallet: software and hardware wallet with their own pros and cons.
Can I Predict Bitcoin’s Price Movement?
To take a position on a bullish trend or short the latest bubble, you first need to understand the factors that impact Bitcoin’s price:
- Bitcoin supply: The current Bitcoin supply is capped at 21 million and expected to be exhausted by 2140. A finite supply means that the price of Bitcoin could increase if demand rises in the coming years.
- Bad press: Breaking news concerning Bitcoin’s security, value, and longevity tends to hurt the coin’s overall market price. Integration. Bitcoin’s public profile depends on its integration into new payment systems and banking frameworks. If this is carried out successfully, demand might rise, positively affecting Bitcoin’s price.
- Key events: Regulation changes, security breaches, and macroeconomic bitcoin announcements can all affect prices. Any agreement between users on how to speed the network up could also raise confidence in Bitcoin, pushing the price up.
- Market capitalization: The value of all the existing coins and how users perceive this development will increase or dampen demand. Growing market capitalization could make Bitcoin a more sought-after investment.
Forecasting Bitcoin’s Price Is Not Easy
No one can really predict what will happen to the price of Bitcoin. The short answer is that it’s too volatile. Some traders have identified certain patterns, methods, and rules to make educated guesses that allow them to profit in the long run. No one exclusively makes profitable trades, but here’s the idea: at the end of the day, you should see a positive balance, even though you may have suffered some losses along the way.
When analyzing Bitcoin, people follow two main methodologies: fundamental analysis and technical analysis.
Understanding Bitcoin’s Intrinsic Value
Fundamental analysis is an approach used by Bitcoin traders to determine Bitcoin's intrinsic value. This process considers a number of internal and external factors. Fundamental analysis is easier to perform for traditional asset classes such as equities, fixed-income securities, and commodities. Various parameters must be assessed to understand value.
For Bitcoin, these might include:
- Whitepaper
- Liquidity and trading volume
- Fees
- Market capitalization
- Other project metrics
Fundamental analysis involves evaluating an asset's intrinsic value based on various economic, financial, and other qualitative and quantitative factors. For Bitcoin, this might include:
Market News
Staying updated on regulatory news, technological advancements, and adoption rates.
On-Chain Metrics
Analyzing data such as hash rate, transaction volumes, and wallet addresses to understand network activity and investor behavior.
Macroeconomic Factors
Considering the impact of global economic trends, interest rates, and geopolitical events on
Bitcoin's value.
Analyzing Bitcoin’s Price Action
Simply put, technical analysis of Bitcoin includes reviewing the price patterns using various types of charting techniques such as:
- Line chart
- Bar chart
- Candlesticks, etc.
And applying technical analysis indicators. Such indicators are:
- Combination of trend lines
- Support and resistance levels
- Moving averages
- Directional movement indexed
- Momentum indicators
- Extensions, etc.
Technical analysis indicators use Bitcoin's past prices to forecast its future price movement. Bitcoin technical analysis usually relies on charting patterns, statistical indicators, or both. The most commonly used charts are candlestick, bar, line and bar charts. Each can be created with similar data but presents the information in different and useful ways. Here are some essential techniques:
Fibonacci Retracements
Fibonacci retracement levels are based on the idea that markets will retrace a predictable portion of a move, after which they will continue in the original direction. These levels are derived from the Fibonacci sequence and can help identify potential reversal levels.
How to use Fibonacci retracements on BTC:
- Identify the Trend: Determine whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.
- Select Swing Points: Identify the recent significant swing high and swing low. In an uptrend, the swing low is the start, and the swing high is the end. In a downtrend, it's the opposite.
- Draw the Fibonacci Tool: Use the Fibonacci retracement tool to draw a line from the swing high to the swing low (or vice versa).
- Analyze Key Levels: The main Fibonacci levels (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%) act as potential support and resistance levels where the price may reverse.
Support and Resistance Levels
Support and resistance levels are crucial in technical analysis. They indicate the price points where security tends to find support as it falls or resistance as it rises. Understanding these levels can help traders decide when to enter or exit trades.
How to look for support and resistance levels:
- Historical Data: Examine the historical price action to identify areas where the price has repeatedly bounced off (support) or been rejected (resistance).
- Round Numbers: Psychological levels often occur at round numbers (e.g., $20,000, $30,000, $60,000).
- Volume Profile: Higher trading volumes at specific price levels can indicate strong support or resistance.
- Moving Averages: Long-term moving averages can act as dynamic support and resistance levels.
Trendlines
Trendlines are straightforward yet powerful tools in technical analysis. They help identify the direction and strength of a trend, which is critical for making trading decisions.
How to spot up and down trendlines:
- Drawing Uptrend Lines: Connect two or more low points in an uptrend to form a line. This line acts as support.
- Drawing Downtrend Lines: Connect two or more high points in a downtrend to form a line. This line acts as resistance.
- Breakout Confirmation: A breakout above or below the trendline can signal a potential trend reversal.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
The MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price. It is useful for identifying changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend.
How to read MACD on Bitcoin:
- MACD Line: Calculated by subtracting the 26-period EMA from the 12-period EMA.
- Signal Line: A 9-period EMA of the MACD line, which signals potential buy or sell points.
- Histogram: The difference between the MACD and Signal lines indicates momentum.
- Bullish Signals: Occur when the MACD line crosses above the Signal line or when the histogram shifts from negative to positive.
- Bearish Signals: Occur when the MACD line crosses below the Signal line or when the histogram shifts from positive to negative.
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It helps traders identify overbought or oversold conditions, signaling potential reversals.
How to read RSI on Bitcoin:
- Calculation: RSI is calculated using the average gains and losses over a specific period (typically 14 days).
- Overbought Conditions: An RSI above 70 suggests that BTC might be overbought, indicating a potential sell signal.
- Oversold Conditions: An RSI below 30 suggests that BTC might be oversold, indicating a potential buy signal.
- Divergence: RSI divergence (when the price moves in the opposite direction to the RSI) can signal potential reversals.
Moving Averages
Moving averages smooth out price data to help identify the trend direction and potential support and resistance levels. They are fundamental tools in technical analysis.
How to read moving averages on BTC:
- Simple Moving Average (SMA): Calculated by averaging the closing prices over a specific period. It helps identify the overall trend.
- Exponential Moving Average (EMA): This index gives more weight to recent prices, making it more responsive to new information.
- Crossovers: When a short-term MA crosses above a long-term MA, it signals a bullish trend (Golden Cross). Conversely, a bearish trend is signaled when a short-term MA crosses below a long-term MA (Death Cross).
Bitcoin Analytics Tools
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Informed Decision Making
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Why Bitcoin Price Predictions are Unreliable
Why Bitcoin Predictions Often Miss the Mark
Bitcoin price predictions often miss the mark because, while traders use indicators, chart patterns, news, and market sentiment, price prediction is not guaranteed. The speculative nature of Bitcoin and unpredictable external influences, such as regulation changes or market sentiment, can change everything.
Bitcoin Predictions are Easy to Believe
Predictions about Bitcoin can be alluring. Many need more analytical support to back up their claims. An outlandish price point, particularly one in the upward direction, will always tempt investors.
Someone holding a digital coin currently priced at 100 bucks can easily be swayed to believe that the token will skyrocket to 10,000 dollars simply because they want it to be true, and it has happened in the past. The issue is that many predictions are delivered without evidence and proper analysis to support them.
Stubborn Stances by Investors
The forecast may come from an analyst with a permabull stance. These forecasters may turn out to be right, and anyone can plot a trend line on a graph and make a prediction. Someone will be right, and they'll be touted as the latest expert to listen to. You've likely seen a headline like "Analyst that predicted a price of XYZ and was right, now forecasts ABC!" and some will listen.
Some might take an opposing stance, predicting that the markets will fall to a certain price. There is a chance that it will happen, and that person will be lauded as the one who knows and again, some will listen. Some analysts use the broken clock method. Even a broken clock is right twice a day to make predictions. At some point, they will be right.
Market Speculation
It's true that there are a significant number of millionaires who made a lot of money from early purchases. But this was pure speculation at that point. Even though prices are continually rising over time, like the stock market, Bitcoin remains speculative because it is driven by emotion and desire.
Even after the Securities and Exchange Commission approved Bitcoin Spot ETFs in January 2024, there remained no fundamentals for investors or analysts to analyze and compare. The constant factor throughout all ups and downs is the hope that prices go up.
Media and News
Like analysts, many media outlets want to be the ones that "were there" in the trenches with the traders and investors. Being the first to report is a big deal, so when there are whispers or speculation about a development, it is quickly disseminated to the masses.
Case in point
In October 2023, an employee at an outlet accidentally published a social media post about a Bitcoin Spot ETF, something many investors, brokerages, and financial management firms had been clamoring for. Bitcoin's price spiked more than 2,000 dollars over several hours before dropping when fans realized it wasn't true, and the outlet released an apology.
This is a prime example of what happens in speculative investments. Investors (in reality, those who buy and hold Bitcoin are speculators) succumb to the fear of missing out (FOMO) on an opportunity for large and quick profits.
Trading
Critical to prices is trading volume, and billions of dollars in Bitcoin are traded every day. Trading activity is guided by price speculation on the part of traders, people using bitcoins in transactions, which generally don't influence prices because there isn't enough buying volume or enough payments being made to affect demand and supply. Realistically, analysts use price data influenced by traders and investors to create predictions.
4 Top Tips for Successful Bitcoin Trading
1. Do Your Research Like a Pro Trader
Bitcoin markets are known for being volatile, and a key event can impact and move the price of Bitcoin both heavily and quickly. If you want to be a pro-Bitcoin trader and wish to earn the most from Bitcoin, you have to stay current on every possible bitcoin news and any key event that could cause market movements. In fact, there are various exchanges that help you to collate all the relevant news items that you need to read before the start of your day.
2. Ignore Hype or Misleading News
Do not take your trading calls based on social media news. As Bitcoin is a hot topic, misleading and false news on Bitcoin tends to spread very quickly.
3. Build A Balanced Portfolio
Bitcoin trading is still at a very nascent stage. There is still quite a lot of ambiguity in the market. Thus, it is very important to build your balanced portfolio, and not a very Bitcoin heavy portfolio. This strategy will help you to go a long way in beating volatility.
4. Automated Trading
Automating your Bitcoin trading strategies can help you execute trades more efficiently and eliminate emotional decision-making. Various platforms, like Vestinda, offer automation tools that allow you to use indicators and predefined strategies.
Using indicators for automated trading:
- Setting Up Indicators: Choose indicators like MACD, RSI, or Moving Averages based on your trading strategy.
- Creating Strategies: Combine multiple indicators to create robust trading strategies. For example, using MACD for trend confirmation and RSI for entry/exit points.
- Backtesting: Test your strategies using historical data to ensure their effectiveness. Backtesting helps identify strengths and weaknesses, allowing for adjustments before live trading.
- Automation Tools: Use platforms like Vestinda to automate the execution of your strategies. This ensures that trades are executed according to predefined rules without human intervention, reducing the risk of emotional trading.
Related Reading
- How to Read Bitcoin Charts
- RSI Bitcoin
- How To Trade Bitcoin Options
- On Chain vs Off Chain
- Bitcoin Scarcity
- Chainalysis Competitors
- What Is Bitcoin Hash Rate
- Bitcoin Country Adoption
- Bitcoin Correlation To Stock Market
- Bitcoin Tools
Save 30% on Bitcoin Magazine Pro's Bitcoin Analysis Tool With Our Annual Plan
Bitcoin Magazine Pro offers comprehensive analytics tools to help investors and enthusiasts better understand Bitcoin through data. The platform provides a wide range of free, regularly updated Bitcoin charts, each accompanied by detailed explanations to make complex information accessible.
For those looking to go deeper, paid tiers offer features like:
- Chart alerts
- Exclusive indicators
- In-depth market reports
Whether you're a curious Bitcoin investor wanting to grasp the factors influencing Bitcoin's price or an analyst eager to expand your knowledge, Bitcoin Magazine Pro aims to provide clarity and insights to support more informed decision-making in the Bitcoin space.
Save 30% on Bitcoin Magazine Pro's Bitcoin analysis tool today when you sign up on our annual plan!