Bitcoin: Pi Cycle Top Indicator

Indicator Overview

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has historically been effective in picking out the timing of market cycle highs within 3 days.

It uses the 111 day moving average (111DMA) and a newly created multiple of the 350 day moving average, the 350DMA x 2.

Note: The multiple is of the price values of the 350DMA, not the number of days.

For the past three market cycles, when the 111DMA moves up and crosses the 350DMA x 2 we see that it coincides with the price of Bitcoin peaking.

It is also interesting to note that 350 / 111 is 3.153, which is very close to Pi = 3.142. In fact, it is the closest we can get to Pi when dividing 350 by another whole number.

It once again demonstrates the cyclical nature of Bitcoin price action over long time frames. However, in this instance, it does so with a high degree of accuracy over Bitcoin's adoption phase of growth.

Bitcoin Price Prediction Using This Tool

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator forecasts the cycle top of Bitcoin’s market cycles. It attempts to predict the point where Bitcoin price will peak before pulling back. It does this on major high time frames and has picked the absolute tops of Bitcoin’s major price moves throughout most of its history.

How It Can Be Used

Pi Cycle Top is useful to indicate when the market is very overheated. So overheated that the shorter-term moving average, which is the 111-day moving average, has reached an x2 multiple of the 350-day moving average. Historically, it has proved advantageous to sell Bitcoin around this time in Bitcoin's price cycles.

It is also worth noting that this indicator has worked during Bitcoin's adoption growth phase, the first 15 years or so of Bitcoin's life. With the launch of Bitcoin ETF's and Bitcoin's increased integration into the global financial system, this indicator may cease to be relevant at some point in this new market structure.

Created By

Philip Swift

Date Created

April 2019

Fall Further Down The Rabbit Hole

The Golden Ratio Multiplier Article (which includes a section on the Pi Cycle Top Indicator)

Similar Live Charts That You May Find Useful

Other live charts that attempt to predict the major highs in Bitcoin price are the MVRV Z-score and RHODL Ratio indicators which are also free to view on this site.

Video Explainer