Bitcoin hasn’t had the explosive start to 2025 that many anticipated. After topping out above $100,000, price has retraced sharply, leaving investors and analysts alike questioning where we currently stand in the broader Bitcoin cycle. In this piece, we’ll look past the noise and dig into a range of key on-chain and macro indicators to assess whether BTC’s bull market is still intact or if a deeper correction looms.
Healthy Pullback Or Cycle End?
A great place to start is the MVRV-Z Score, a long-standing valuation metric that compares market value to realized value. After peaking around 3.36, the MVRV-Z score has since dropped to approximately 1.43, coinciding with BTC’s decline from over $100K to as low as $75K. At first glance, this 30% retracement seems severe.
Figure 1: In recent days, the MVRV Z-Score has rebounded from its 2025 low of 1.43.
Historically, levels comparable to those we see now on the MVRV-Z score have often marked local bottoms, not tops. Previous cycles, including 2017 and 2021, saw similar pullbacks before price resumed its uptrend. In short, while the move down has shaken investor confidence, it aligns with historical corrections during bull markets.
Watching The Smart Money
Another key metric is the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple. This measures the velocity of BTC being moved, weighted by how long the coins were held before transacting. Spikes typically indicate experienced holders taking profit, while low levels suggest accumulation.
At present, the metric sits deep in the “green zone,” similar to levels seen during late bear markets or early recovery phases. Given the sharp reversal from above $100K, we may be witnessing the end of a profit-taking wave, with some long-term accumulation, in anticipation of higher prices, beginning to appear again.
Figure 2: The current VDD multiple indicates an accumulation phase for long-term holders.
One of the most insightful on-chain charts is the Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flows chart, which breaks down realized capital by coin age. It isolates different cohorts, such as new market entrants (<1 month) and mid-term holders (1–2 years), to observe capital migration. The red band (new holders) spiked aggressively near the $106,000 peak, suggesting FOMO-driven buyers piled in near the top. Since then, this group’s activity has cooled significantly, back to levels consistent with early-to-mid bull markets.
Conversely, the 1–2 year cohort, typically macro-savvy accumulators, has begun rising again. This inverse correlation is key: long-term holders accumulate at market lows while newer entrants capitulate or exit. These dynamics mirror the accumulation-distribution patterns seen in earlier bull cycles, especially throughout 2020 and 2021.
Figure 3: The Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flows chart illustrates BTC flowing back to more experienced holders.
Where Are We Now?
Zooming out to a macro view, we’ve broken the Bitcoin market cycle into three key phases:
- Bear phase: Deep retracement (70–90%)
- Recovery phase: Reclaiming the previous all-time high
- Bull/exponential phase: Parabolic advance post-high reclaim.
The 2015 and 2018 bear markets lasted approximately 13-14 months. Our most recent bear cycle also lasted 14 months. The recovery phase in past cycles lasted around 23–26 months, and our current cycle sits right in that window.
Figure 4: Using previous cycle trends to estimate a potential bull peak.
However, this bull phase has been unusual. Instead of an immediate surge after breaking all-time highs, BTC experienced a pullback. This could indicate that we’re simply forming a higher low before entering the steeper portion of the exponential phase. If we split the difference between the 9-month and 11-month exponential phases of past cycles, we’d expect a potential top sometime around September 2025, assuming the bull phase resumes.
Macro Risks
Despite the encouraging on-chain data, macro headwinds still loom. Analysis of the S&P500 vs Bitcoin Correlation chart illustrates BTC remains heavily correlated to U.S. equities. And with growing concerns around a potential global recession, continued weakness in traditional markets could weigh on BTC’s ability to rally in the near term.
Figure 5: Bitcoin’s correlation to U.S equities.
Conclusion
As we have seen in this analysis, key on-chain metrics, such as MVRV Z-Score, Value Days Destroyed, and Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flows, suggest healthy, cycle-consistent behavior and signs of long-term holder accumulation. There does, however, remain significant macroeconomic uncertainties in the market, and these are key risks to watch.
This cycle has been slower and more uneven than past cycles, but it’s not breaking historical structure. If we can avoid further deterioration in traditional markets, BTC appears primed for another leg up, potentially peaking in Q3 or early Q4.
For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here:
Where We Are In This Bitcoin Cycle
Matt Crosby
Lead Analyst - Bitcoin Magazine Pro