On December 5, 2024, Bitcoin reached a monumental milestone: surpassing $100,000 for the first time in its history! This milestone, nearly 16 years after the Genesis Block and its inception in 2009, is a moment of celebration for holders who have witnessed Bitcoin’s journey from less than a penny into six-figure territory. But what does this mean for the future of Bitcoin?
Remember Remember The 5th of December
If you’d invested in Bitcoin at any point during its history and held it until today, you’d now be in profit. This is a testament to Bitcoin’s long-term upward trajectory and investor resilience, despite the rollercoaster ride of volatility we’ve all endured. If you’ve made it this far congratulations, you’ve earned this! December 5th 2024 will be immortalised in the Bitcoin history books.
Figure 1: Bitcoin reached 100% Profitable Days.
Now Bitcoin has ventured into six-figure territory, many are speculating about the next psychological and technical price targets. Predictions of $200,000 or even a $500,000 Bitcoin are being thrown around, but as history always suggests, a measured and data-driven approach is key to preventing getting carried away with the excitement.
What’s Next?
Despite our jubilation, we also have to remember this is Bitcoin. Celebrations are often shortlived as investors immediately look to the next target for BTC! The Bitcoin Cycle Master chart offers a simplified view of Bitcoin’s fair, aggressively valued, and overvalued price zones. Calculated using a number of collated on-chain metrics so provide a less speculative and more formulated and historically accurate metric.
Figure 2: The next Cycle Master target is $110,000.
Looking at this chart, we can see that the ‘Fair Market Value’ is currently pegged at $65,500, while the ‘Aggressively Valued’ line is just above $110,000. Historically, this upper level has been tested and consolidated around before Bitcoin breaks higher, so that’s our immediate next target.
In previous cycles, once Bitcoin broke above significant psychological levels like $20,000 or $1,000, it often consolidated around the aggressively valued zone before rallying further. If history repeats, we might see Bitcoin consolidating near $110,000 before making a run at the overvalued price level of $178,000 or higher.
Doubling Trends
Bitcoin’s history is full of rapid price surges once key resistance levels are breached. For instance, in the 2017 bull run, Bitcoin doubled from $10,000 to $20,000 in just 15 days. Similarly, in 2020, it quickly moved from $20,000 to $40,000. While today’s market is larger and requires more capital inflow to sustain similar percentage gains, historical patterns suggest that rapid growth is not out of the question now the $100,000 resistance has been breached.
Figure 3: Bitcoin has historically doubled quickly after breaking major resistance.
Plenty Of Room Left
The MVRV Z-Score measures Bitcoin’s market cap relative to its Realized Price (the average accumulation price of all coins). This metric provides insights into whether Bitcoin is overbought or undervalued. Currently, the MVRV Z-Score sits at around 3.00, far from the overheated levels of 7–10 seen in previous bull market peaks.
Figure 4: MVRV & MVRV Z-Score both indicate substantial upside potential.
If Bitcoin’s Realized Price, currently around $37,500, continues to increase by around $4,000 per month, as it has recently, we could see a $50,000 cost-basis for all BTC in early 2025. When looking at the raw MVRV data, this metric has reached values of 4x-5x the Realized Price during peak cycles, suggesting Bitcoin prices of $200,000+ could be realistic in the coming months.
Retail Participation
Early in Bitcoin cycles, market activity is driven primarily by experienced long-term holders. Retail investors typically flood in later, often after major psychological levels are breached. Currently, retail participation remains subdued compared to previous cycle peaks, with metrics like Realized Cap HODL Waves suggesting we are a ways away from peak retail inflows. This metric looks at the impact of new market participants of the average accumulation price, specifically in the chart below we’re looking at 1 month of less since purchase.
Figure 5: New Realized Cap HODL Waves bands remain comparatively low.
Conclusion
December 5, 2024, will go down in history as the day Bitcoin broke into six figures. While the $100,000 milestone is historic, it’s essential to remain cautious and avoid being swept away by hype. Social media and speculative headlines may fuel narratives of $500,000 or even $1 million Bitcoin, but the reality is more nuanced.
We need to take things one step at a time. The next key level to watch is $110,000, and while breaking above this level could pave the way for Bitcoin to test $178,000 or higher, we need to acknowledge anything could happen. Implement a data-driven approach and avoid relying on personal emotion or biases.
Historical trends suggest the timeframes for doubling prices shorten as Bitcoin grows in prominence. It took nearly 16 years to reach $100,000, but the next $100,000 milestone will likely happen in a fraction of that time.
For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here:
$100,000 Bitcoin! $200,000 Next?
Matt
Lead Analyst Bitcoin Magazine Pro.