How to Read a Gold vs Bitcoin Chart for Better Investment Decisions

6 de febrero de 2025

Author: Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team

When faced with inflation and a volatile stock market, many investors seek alternative assets to hedge against risk. Two of the most well-known alternatives are Bitcoin and gold. But as the Bitcoin market evolves, what’s the relationship between the two? The gold vs Bitcoin chart can help you answer this question.  Analyzing the price action between gold and Bitcoin can help you identify trends, manage risk, and make smarter investment decisions based on real data.  Bitcoin Magazine Pro has a solution to help you do just that. Their Bitcoin analysis tool provides valuable insights to help you confidently assess gold vs Bitcoin charts to identify trends and make smarter investment decisions for better Bitcoin annual returns.

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What is the Correlation Between Bitcoin and Gold?

btc and gold - Gold vs Bitcoin

Correlation is a statistical measure that describes how two or more variables move about each other. In finance, correlation refers explicitly to how asset prices move about one another. Correlation can be positive, negative, or neutral–meaning the two assets move in the same direction, in opposite directions, or not at all. 

Understanding Asset Correlation

When two assets are positively correlated, they typically move in tandem; when one goes up, so does the other. Conversely, negatively correlated assets move opposite; when one goes up, the other goes down. Neutral correlation means little to no relationship between the price movements of two assets. 

Bitcoin and Gold Have a Fluctuating Correlation

Bitcoin and gold are often compared as stores of value, but their correlation fluctuates based on market conditions. The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has become a growing interest among investors, especially as Bitcoin matures and gains broader acceptance in the financial world. 

A Historical Look

Historically, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has been inconsistent, influenced by various factors, including:

  • Global economic events
  • Central bank policies
  • Technological developments

For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic, Bitcoin and gold saw significant price increases as investors sought safe havens amid economic uncertainty. 

Unstable Correlation

Nevertheless, this correlation has not been stable. The correlation has sometimes been near zero or even negative, indicating that Bitcoin and gold do not always move in tandem. For example, in late 2021, as inflationary pressures increased and central banks hinted at tightening monetary policies, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold weakened significantly. 

Drivers of Correlation

This correlation fluctuation illustrates these assets' complexity and the factors that drive their prices. As Bitcoin continues to evolve, so does its relationship with gold. The correlation between the two is influenced by macroeconomic conditions, investor sentiment, and the broader adoption of Bitcoin as both a speculative and a store-of-value asset.

Regulatory Developments Influence Bitcoin and Gold

The evolving regulatory landscape, especially in the United States, is one pivotal element propelling Bitcoin's ascent. Recent developments have seen the BTC industry score key legal victories as the SEC rules in favor of Bitcoin, particularly regarding the approval of the ETF. This works toward signaling a turning point in the quest for legitimacy. 

A Game Changer

Among these developments, the approval of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) stands out, facilitating institutional and retail investment in digital currencies. This milestone has broadened the investor base and enhanced Bitcoin’s credibility and attractiveness as an investment asset. 

A Historical Parallel

The regulatory acceptance of Bitcoin mirrors several historical moments from the spot gold market, particularly when we consider regulatory approval and the mechanics of supply and demand. In the early 2000s, the gold market experienced a significant boost by introducing gold spot ETFs, most notably the SPDR Gold Shares ETF in 2004. 

This fund provided a direct avenue for retail and institutional investors to gain exposure to gold. Gold ETFs offered a convenient and efficient vehicle for exposure to the price movements of gold without the complexities and costs associated with buying, storing, and insuring physical gold. 

Advantages of Gold ETFs

Before the advent of ETFs, institutions looking to invest in gold faced significant barriers, including:

  • Storage security
  • Insurance costs
  • Liquidity issues
  • Logistics of handling large quantities of a physical asset

Bitcoin Halving Events and Value Dynamics

Another critical factor in Bitcoin’s recent price surge is anticipating the upcoming halving event. Halving, a feature built into Bitcoin’s protocol, reduces the reward for mining new blocks by half approximately every four years, effectively limiting the supply of new Bitcoins. 

This event is a significant mechanism to combat inflation and preserve the scarcity of Bitcoin, a key attribute that distinguishes it from traditional fiat currencies. The halving process has historically triggered substantial interest and speculation, as the reduced supply of new Bitcoins against a backdrop of steady or increasing demand can lead to price increases. 

Halving Hype

The upcoming halving event, expected in April 2024, has already begun to stir market anticipation, contributing to the rally. Drawing from past halving events that have seen substantial price jumps, investors are positioning themselves to capitalize on the expected reduction in new Bitcoin supply, underscoring the event’s significance in the BTC’s valuation dynamics. 

Like Gold Mining

The Bitcoin halving is analogous to the gold discovery and mining process. Just as gold mining becomes more challenging and less fruitful over time as the easier-to-reach gold is extracted, the Bitcoin halving reduces the reward for mining new blocks, making new Bitcoins less accessible. 

Scarcity Drives Value

This scarcity can drive up the value of gold when new gold deposits become more challenging to find or when the cost of mining increases, often due to technological or regulatory factors. In Bitcoin’s case, the built-in scarcity due to the halving is designed to increase its value by reducing the flow of new coins into the market. 

Gold Mining Challenges

In the same way that Bitcoin’s mining rewards have decreased, so has gold. For one, the grade of ore, which represents the concentration of gold within the ore, has been decreasing, indicating that mining for gold is becoming more challenging. For example, in the 1980s, the average grade of ore was around 10 grams per tonne, but by the 2000s, it fell to around 1-2 grams per tonne in many mines. 

Gold Production and Price Trends

Gold production hit a peak in 2018, with 3,332 metric tons extracted. Nevertheless, as new gold deposits become more complex and expensive to mine, this impacts supply. Despite fluctuations, gold prices generally trended upwards from around $1,000 per ounce in 2009 to over $2,000 per ounce in 2020. 

Why Gold and Bitcoin Are Often Not Correlated  

A general correlation between Bitcoin and gold might be based on specific shared characteristics, such as scarcity and potential as a store of value. As explained above, Bitcoin’s recent price movements are most likely the result of regulatory developments and an influx of investment anticipating a ‘halving event.’ 

Different Drivers, Different Paths

Nevertheless, we find something quite different when we look at the key drivers of gold’s recent rally. While gold thrives amid the weakening U.S. dollar and the Federal Reserve’s hints at potential interest rate cuts, Bitcoin’s trajectory often diverges, driven more by speculative investor sentiment and technological advancements than traditional economic indicators. 

Gold's Safe Haven Appeal

Gold benefits from its historic role as a haven and a hedge against inflation, particularly in geopolitical strife and central bank accumulation, factors that inherently differ from the digital currency’s appeal. The decline in bond yields, which diminishes the opportunity cost of holding gold, does not influence Bitcoin in quite the same way, highlighting the distinct forces propelling each asset’s value. 

Bitcoin's Distinct Risks

Considering Bitcoin’s volatility and regulatory uncertainties, drawing this analogy can be misleading and potentially risky for investors. The digital nature of Bitcoin, its dependence on technological development, and its relatively short history compared to gold’s centuries-long status as a financial haven introduce distinct risks and opportunities. 

Thus, while the analogy can highlight some aspects of Bitcoin’s value proposition, it simplifies these assets' complex and distinct nature. 

Market Maturity: Gold vs Bitcoin

Gold has a centuries-long history as a medium of exchange and store of value, contributing to its stability. The gold market is mature, with a vast and diverse range of participants, from central banks and institutional investors to jewelry manufacturers and individual collectors. In contrast, Bitcoin, created in 2009, is a newcomer. Its market is developing, and while it has seen rapid growth, it is still evolving and is subject to significant price swings. 

These fluctuations can be attributed to varying factors, including investor sentiment, technological developments, and macroeconomic trends that may not similarly affect gold. 

Regulatory Environment: Gold vs Bitcoin

Gold is widely recognized and accepted by regulatory frameworks worldwide. It operates within a well-established trading, weighing, and tracking system that financial institutions and governments understand. Bitcoin’s regulatory landscape, on the other hand, is continually shifting. 

Different countries have differing stances on BTC, ranging from outright bans to enthusiastic adoption. This inconsistency can increase volatility and legal uncertainties for Bitcoin holders and investors. 

Physical vs Digital Nature: Gold vs Bitcoin

Gold is a physical commodity with inherent value. It is used not only for investment and wealth preservation but also in industries such as electronics and jewelry. Bitcoin is entirely digital and derives its value from the network it operates on and the consensus of its users. It has no physical use beyond being a medium of exchange, and its value is entirely dependent on technology and the continued operation of its underlying blockchain. 

Factors Influencing Supply and Demand: Gold vs Bitcoin

While both assets are scarce, the factors influencing their supply and demand are vastly different. Gold’s supply is influenced by mining production, which can be affected by technological advancements and environmental regulations. Investment needs and practical uses in industry and jewelry drive its demand. 

Bitcoin's Fixed Supply

Bitcoin’s supply, in contrast, is algorithmically fixed with a cap of 21 million coins, and its demand is primarily driven by investor interest and adoption as a means of payment. This difference means that while scarcity can impact the price of both, the way that scarcity comes about and affects the market is not the same. 

Investment Profile: Gold vs Bitcoin

Investors view gold as a haven asset, especially during economic downturns, due to its long-standing value and lack of correlation with other asset classes. With its high volatility, Bitcoin is often viewed as a speculative investment and a means to achieve substantial gains over a short period. Nevertheless, this view could change as the market matures. 

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Gold vs Bitcoin Chart

Price Comparison of Bitcoin and Gold Over Time



Charts comparing the prices of bitcoin and gold give investors a clearer picture of how the two assets relate to each other. The first chart in the section compares the historical prices of bitcoin and gold over the last decade. As you can see, Bitcoin has significantly outperformed gold during this time. 

Gold Outperforms Bitcoin

In recent months, the price of gold has been stable, while Bitcoin has fallen sharply from its late 2021 highs. This has led to a significant drop in the Bitcoin to gold ratio, indicating that gold has been outperforming Bitcoin lately. 

What the Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio Chart Reveals 

The ratio in the chart above divides the price of bitcoin by the price of gold and represents the ounces of gold it takes to buy a single bitcoin. When the ratio rises, Bitcoin outperforms gold, and when it falls, gold outperforms Bitcoin. The chart's yAxis is logarithmic for better visualization and to cope with Bitcoin's parabolic advances over time. 

btc graph with gold

Bitcoin and Gold Price Trends

This chart displays the same ratio as the chart above on a linear scale. While the linear scale provides a different perspective on Bitcoin's price performance relative to gold, it does not change the conclusion: bitcoin has significantly outperformed gold over the years, but recent trends indicate that gold is outperforming Bitcoin. 

A Closer Look at Bitcoin and Gold Prices

This chart gives a different view of the data from the charts above, comparing the percentage change between the prices of Bitcoin and gold over time. The diagram illustrates that while Bitcoin and gold prices rose significantly in 2020, bitcoin prices skyrocketed, increasing by over 300% that year. 

Unpredictable Performance

Gold, on the other hand, posted a more modest gain of 25%. The following year, Bitcoin prices plummeted by more than 70%, while gold prices posted a slight increase of 4%. The charts clearly show that Bitcoin and gold can generate vastly different returns, and the price performance of one does not predict the future performance of the other. 

The Correlation Between Bitcoin and Gold


The chart above displays the 1-year rolling correlation coefficient between the price of bitcoin and gold. A correlation coefficient +1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, meaning that the price of Bitcoin and gold moved in the same direction during the specified time window. 



Conversely, a correlation coefficient of -1 indicates that they moved in opposite directions. Diversification is the practice of spreading investments across different assets to reduce risk. In his book Principles, Ray Dalio called diversification the “Holy Grail of Investing.” He realized that with fifteen to twenty uncorrelated return streams, he could dramatically reduce the risks without reducing the expected returns.

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